Fiji welcomes around one million visitors a year and relies on tourism for 40% of its economy. New Caledonia, with lagoons at least as spectacular, received 125,895 in 2023, and tourism accounts for around 2% of GDP. How could such a beautiful archipelago stay so under the radar? The answer comes down to one shiny green word: nickel. And that may be the best news of all for anyone still searching for untouched places.
A country that long lived off what lay underground
Since the ore was discovered in 1864 and SLN was founded in 1880, nickel has been the backbone of New Caledonia’s economy. It still represents around 90% of exports (IEOM, CEROM). Three major plants were built: Doniambo in Nouméa, Koniambo in the North and the Southern plant at Prony. On top of this mining income comes an administrative one: transfers from the French State, estimated at between €1.3 and €1.5 billion a year depending on the source.
When money flows from the ground and from public transfers, why fight to attract tourists?
“Dutch disease”, Pacific-style
Economists have a name for this. In 2007, a study by the Agence française de développement (French Development Agency; Bernard Poirine) described an effect “similar to Dutch disease”: resource income drives up wages and prices, and the sectors exposed to competition, including tourism, see their costs soar. In 2020, the IEOM (the overseas territories’ issuing bank) compared New Caledonia with French Polynesia and noted that “a strong endowment in natural resources can have a negative influence on long-term growth through crowding-out effects”. In 2018, French Polynesia received 216,268 tourists and New Caledonia 120,343, even though New Caledonia’s GDP was almost twice as high.
You can see it in the prices: according to ISEE (2022), hotels and restaurants cost 77% more than in mainland France. Hard to compete on price with Fiji or Vanuatu.
| Destination | Tourists per year | Weight of tourism |
|---|---|---|
| Fiji | around 930,000 (2023), around 1 million (2024) | around 40% of the economy |
| French Polynesia | 261,813 (2023) | around 8% of GDP |
| New Caledonia | 125,895 (2023), 58,421 (2025) | around 2% of GDP |
In fairness, nickel doesn’t explain everything. The Conseil d’analyse économique (the French Council of Economic Analysis, 2017) also points to a lack of competition and productivity; add to that the distance, the cost of airfares, a promotion budget around three times smaller than French Polynesia’s, then Covid and the 2024 crisis. But every analysis agrees on one point: for decades, tourism was never a vital priority.
The unexpected consequence: almost empty lagoons
This is where the paradox gets fascinating. While other islands built resorts on every beach, New Caledonia kept bays free of concrete, small islands deserted on weekdays, and reefs where you sometimes dive alone. The lagoon, a UNESCO World Heritage Site since 2008, is described as “one of the three most extensive reef systems in the world”. The IUCN rates its conservation outlook as “good, with some concerns” (2025). And the entire maritime area, around 1.3 million km², forms the Natural Park of the Coral Sea, created in 2014, whose most remote reefs are 100% protected.
But mining has left scars too
Saying nickel “protected” nature would be too simple. On the mining ranges, erosion of the red earth sends sediment into the rivers and then into the lagoon. A study published in June 2026 (Ifremer, IRD, CNRS and universities) shows that at Thio, sedimentation has increased fivefold since mining was mechanised. There were no environmental mining regulations before 1976; a modern mining code was only adopted in 2009.
So the real paradox cuts both ways: mining damaged some valleys, but its income kept mass tourism at bay, and much of the lagoon and coastline was spared. In 2019, the Southern Province even declared the Côte Oubliée a nature park of 93,000 hectares on land and 29,000 hectares at sea, cancelling 102 mining permits.
2024–2026: the model wobbles, and tourism becomes an opportunity
Today, the “all-nickel” model has run out of steam. Indonesia produces around 67% of the world’s nickel (USGS 2026), prices have collapsed, the Koniambo plant has been shut down since 2024 and the Southern plant is still looking for a buyer. In 2025, nickel accounted for just 3.4% of GDP according to CEROM, a historic low. Another myth to correct: New Caledonia holds around 5% of the world’s nickel reserves (USGS), not the 25% often quoted.
For the first time, the territory is really betting on tourism: a recovery plan targets 250,000 visitors by 2032, with a sharply increased promotion budget. Arrivals are picking up again: +41% in the first half of 2026.
What this means for you: come now
You have a rare window: to discover a UNESCO-listed lagoon before it becomes a mass-tourism destination. Small islands where no one will be in the background of your photos, dives in 10 metres of clear water, sunsets without the crowds.
- To keep these moments: an underwater photo session, in the lagoon or from a small island.
- To learn to capture them yourself: underwater photography courses for divers (booking page in French — you can also write to me in English).
- For inspiration: the underwater portfolio and the best season to visit.
Book a session in the lagoon →
Sources
- USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Nickel: pubs.usgs.gov
- IEOM, “Deux trajectoires de croissance” (Two growth trajectories; study no. 303, 2020) and Panorama 2022: ieom.fr
- AFD, B. Poirine, working paper no. 52 (2007): afd.fr
- Conseil d’analyse économique, note no. 39 (2017): cae-eco.fr
- ISEE, 2022 spatial price comparison and tourism statistics: isee.nc
- CEROM (September 2025 and September 2026), via Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes: lnc.nc
- UNESCO, “Lagoons of New Caledonia”: whc.unesco.org/fr/list/1115; IUCN World Heritage Outlook 2025
- Natural Park of the Coral Sea: mer-de-corail.gouv.nc; DNC, classification of the Côte Oubliée (2019)
- Study on sedimentation in the Thio lagoon (Communications Earth & Environment, June 2026), via LNC
- Government of New Caledonia, tourism recovery plan (December 2025): gouv.nc; Fiji Ministry of Finance; ISPF
